Our PFA investment committee met last week to review the markets, economy, and our investment models. While negative headlines such as the Iran war and increasing inflation continue to get a lot of attention, the main headline that drives stock markets long term (corporate profits) continues to improve. As a result, April was the best month for the U.S. stock market since 2020.[1]
When we look back over the past few years, we know that US stocks were strong in 2023, 2024 and 2025. We’re optimistic that the markets can continue their climb this year, but we want to acknowledge that four consecutive positive years have historically been rare. In fact, the last time there were four years in a row of double-digit stock market returns was back in the late 1990’s.[2]
While we don’t anticipate making any changes to portfolios currently, we are watching things closely. Historically, the 2nd year of the presidential term has been the worst of the 4 years [3], so we want to be ready. As we get later into the summer months, we will likely look to trim some of our winning equity positions and move into some safer areas of the markets.
As usual, please feel free to reach out if you have any questions or want to talk about your situation specifically.
Sincerely,
Your PFA Investment Committee
1: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-stock-market-justhad-its-best-month-since-the-pandemic-rebound-chart-of-the-day100000062.html
2: https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns
3: https://dorseywright.nasdaq.com/research/bigwire/2026/03/30/03- 30-2026/midterm-year-market-volatility